2024年10月,特(te)斯拉新款两座CyberCab无人驾驶出(chu)租车在华(hua)纳兄弟影城举(ju)办的发布活动上亮相(xiang)。(Roberto Baldwin)
虽(sui)然特斯拉(la)首席执(zhi)行官(guan)Elon Musk表示,CyberCab只需使用(yong)人工智能(neng)视觉就(jiu)能(neng)实现自动(dong)驾(jia)驶,但一些自动(dong)驾(jia)驶专(zhuan)家对(dui)此并不(bu)以为然。(Roberto Baldwin)
特斯拉(la)还在CyberCab活(huo)动期间展示(shi)了一辆可以搭(da)载20人(ren)的厢式(shi)车(che)Robovan。(Roberto Baldwin)
Robovan的(de)座舱内(nei)饰。(Roberto Baldwin)
第一款车型(xing)为(wei)CyberCab两座无人驾驶出(chu)租车。这(zhei)款小型(xing)自动(dong)驾驶汽车融(rong)合(he)了Cybertruck电(dian)动(dong)皮卡和本田CR-Z的设计,计划于2026年(nian)投(tou)产(chan)。然(ran)而,Musk也(ye)承(cheng)认其设定的投(tou)产(chan)时间往往过于乐观。目(mu)前为(wei)止,特斯(si)拉未能(neng)如(ru)期投(tou)产(chan)的项目(mu)数量远超其如(ru)期投(tou)产(chan)的项目(mu)。
CyberCab完全(quan)依(yi)赖摄像头视(shi)觉技(ji)术(shu),这是特(te)斯拉备受争议的(de)(de)一项决策。大多数致力(li)于(yu)自动驾驶技(ji)术(shu)研发的(de)(de)公司都会结合使用摄像头、雷达和激光雷达进行导航。然(ran)而(er),Musk在向粉丝宣布CyberCab的(de)(de)售价将低于(yu)3万美(mei)元(yuan)的(de)(de)同(tong)时,还(hai)强(qiang)调,“这款车完全(quan)依(yi)赖人工智能(neng)视(shi)觉技(ji)术(shu),因此不(bu)需要昂贵的(de)(de)设备。”
Cummings表示:“我认为本次发布会毫无新意。特斯拉要想在其描述的网络环境中实现真正的自动驾驶,至少还需要十年的时间。不过我很喜欢特斯拉的20座厢式车Robovan,我认为它应该重点研究该项目。从经济效益的角度而言,这种车型的研发更具意义,而且在短期内可能更容易成功(前提是特斯拉不再坚持完全依赖视觉技术)。”
不过,在一场SAE参与的视频会议中,密歇根大学Mcity常务董事Greg McGuire指出,特斯拉发布会上并未提及任何关于无障碍通行(特别是针对乘坐轮椅的乘客)的内容。McGuire对(dui)CyberCab的创意大为(wei)赞赏。他(ta)表示:“我认为(wei)两座的设(she)计颇具意义,因为(wei)单从汽车与人体(ti)(ti)的动能比来看,体(ti)(ti)积(ji)更(geng)小、重(zhong)量更(geng)轻(qing)的汽车必定有助于打造一个更(geng)安(an)全(quan)的城市(shi)。汽车的重(zhong)量越(yue)轻(qing)或速度越(yue)慢,对(dui)自行车骑行者(zhe)和行人来说(shuo)安(an)全(quan)性就(jiu)会越(yue)高。”
只是,Musk再次设定了一个许(xu)多人(ren)都认(ren)为不切实际的交付时间。
For over a decade, the autonomous vehicle problem has been far more difficult than originally expected for every company involved. The landscape is littered with abandoned attempts.
Tesla doesn't seem to be fazed by the failure of competitors and even its own many missed deadlines to bring autonomous taxis to the market. At its We, Robot event at the Warner Bros. studio in Burbank, CA, Musk appeared onstage to unveil a pair of dedicated robotaxis and a new timetable for the availability of autonomous vehicles.
The first vehicle is the two-seater Cybercab. A cross between the Cybertruck and the Honda CR-Z, the small autonomous vehicle is set to go into production in 2026. Although, Musk did admit a tendency to be optimistic with timelines. At this point in its history, more public Tesla deadlines have been missed than kept.
SAE Media had a chance to ride in the Cybercab. Its small stature and gullwing doors did feel in place in the faux-city Tesla put together on the Warner Bros. lot. The interior was roomy for two people, and the seats were comfortable. The lack of a steering wheel or pedals, while not alarming in the operating domain of a movie set with prescribed routes without the hustle and bustle (and dangers) of a real city, could make some of the public pause before riding.
A large screen offered up bits of sci-fi movies, and a soundtrack straight out of the ‘80s blared in our ears. It was a demo of the potential of the vehicle. As of right now, Tesla does not have a self-driving vehicle on the market.
One of the more controversial decisions by Tesla is to rely entirely on camera vision. Most other companies working on automated driving are using cameras in conjunction with radar and lidar to navigate the world. "I want to emphasize that the solution that we have is AI vision. So there's no expensive equipment needed," Musk told the crowd of fans as he announced that the CyberCab would cost under $30,000.
"I do not think self-driving (or even driving assist) can be reliably accomplished with computer vision." Missy Cummings, professor and director of Mason Autonomy and Robotics Center at George Mason University, told SAE.
"I saw nothing new in the reveal,” Cummings said. “Tesla is at least 10 years away from achieving real self-driving in the network they describe. But I did love their 20-person shuttle and wish they would focus on this. The economies of scale make more sense and they likely could be more successful in the short term (but only if they stop insisting on vision only).”
And a Robovan?
The pivot to a 20-person Robovan was a surprise. Musk has noted his disdain for public transportation in the past. The van would reduce congestion during commutes or trips to the airport. However, during a call with SAE Media, Greg McGuire, managing director of Mcity at the University of Michigan, noted that there was zero mention of accessibility (particularly for wheelchair-bound riders) at the event.
McGuire did like the idea of the CyberCab. "I think the two-seater idea is actually pretty interesting because a smaller form factor vehicle, lighter weight, will definitely contribute to a safer city in terms of just the sheer kinetic energy of a vehicle versus a human. Either bicycle or pedestrian, you know, the less that vehicle weighs, or the slower it's going, the better."
McGuire also echoed Cummings’ concern that the Tesla technology would not be ready by 2027. "The performance of Tesla's full self-driving stack is not – from what I've seen – ready for general Level 4 operation. Will they be there by 2027? At Mcity, we still think there's a couple of key scientific barriers," McGuire said.
Tesla, for its part, has been promising that autonomous vehicles and robotaxis are just around the corner for years. In 2016, CEO Elon Musk mentioned it during an earnings call and in his master plan blog post, which has since been deleted. In 2019, Musk announced that the vehicles would be on the road by the end of that year. In 2020, Musk again said that the robotaxis would be ready by the end of that year.
Being skeptical of Musk's claims is understandable. "Recall all the past promises about FSD, the Roadster, the Cybertruck, etc. While I’m excited about the prospect of the technology –should it actually prove to be safe – I don’t think it’s realistically going to be available at a sub-$30k cost, nor will the Cybercab enter production within the ambitious timeline Musk suggested. You can pretty much toss both of those comments right out the window," Robby DeGraff, manager of product and consumer insights at AutoPacific, told SAE Media in an email.
While Tesla might be bullish on robotaxis, the general public might not be ready, "There’s much work to be done before these things hit the road, regulations to be met, and, equally important, public trust and assurance need to be gained for supervised FSD. Generally speaking, our research shows that consumers remain very hesitant about more advanced forms of autonomy in vehicles, especially ones of their own. There’s not much demand for it," DeGraff said.
Behind the CyberCab
At the end of the ride in the CyberCab, the door swung open and we exited the vehicle. While Tesla wants to do away with individual drivers, these vehicles are typically monitored remotely, and when they get confused, a human needs to interact so that situations like those that have happened in San Francisco with Cruise vehicles blocking the roadway don't become the norm. While walking on the studio lot, in the building behind where Musk and Tesla had set up a stage with enormous screens and a light show, we noticed walls of monitors being watched.
On the screens was the view of the world from the cameras of the CyberCabs and other Tesla models participating in the autonomous demo. Humans were keeping tabs on the vehicles. This is one of the realities of autonomous vehicles. Remote monitoring of the vehicles themselves with occasional human intervention to keep the vehicles on track.
A movie studio made for a great backdrop of an autonomous world where traffic just means more time to watch a film and every car is making someone some extra cash while ferrying their neighbors around. The reality is much tougher, and the world is far more chaotic. Tesla needs to build vehicles that can navigate the real world with all its insanity and, once again, Musk set himself up with a timeline that many don't believe is possible.
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